Flash 9 with Quicktime Capabilities - and 30% penetration
Tuesday, November 27th, 2007This is a truly cool and useful post from Emmy Huang, the product manager for Adobe Flash Player. First off, Flash 9 had a very important release in late August (known affectionately as Flash 9.0.47, not to be confused with the newer release of 9.0.97 which provides Leopard fixes) that finally brought H.264 and Flash together. Now the playing field of mainstream web video codecs will merge into 2… H.264/Flash and Windows (VC-1).
Emmy’s post helps provide basic estimates for clients who want to know when all this video goodness will become mainstream. I quote “So here is a basic guideline that you can use to project penetration of a particular release:
@3 months = 30 - 40%
@6 months = 55 - 65
@9 months = 80 - 85%
@12 months = 90+%
So we are looking to the end of summer 2008 to reach near ubiquity, unless everyone starts switching over sooner. Hopefully by this time, the marketing executives at major brands running Windows 98 SE will have upgraded to new machines and will no longer request rough cuts in MPEG1 format
The new Flash player will open up a lot more cool playback possibilities for companies with large Quicktime 7 spot collections.
